Metallprisnyheter Juni
After more than 3 months of war, the United States and Iran have signed a peace agreement. But will it last? And when will the markets turn to optimism instead of a crisis mindset?
Macroeconomic developments
The peace agreement was announced Monday morning, but the agreement will not be officially signed until Friday. The prospect of peace was reflected throughout the world market: Oil and aluminium prices went down, and all other metals went up in the hope that a major economic crisis has now been averted.
However, the long-term market situation might not be so rosy. The war has already caused inflation to rise in China, USA and Europe, which will impact the economies for some time. Last week, the European Central Bank responded by raising interest rates to 2.25%, and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is meeting today (Wednesday) to discuss the interest rate. In light of the peace agreement the Fed is expected to keep the interest rate unchanged.
Aluminium
Over the weekend, aluminium fell by approximately 2% to USD 3453/tonne and has since fallen slightly more. But by and large, the aluminium markets have remained cautious in reaction to the peace agreement. Aluminium production has been directly affected by the war, and it will take time to assess the damage and rebuild full production capacity – provided that the peace agreement even lasts long enough to do that.
Copper
Copper production has not been directly affected by the war, but a budding energy crisis and rising inflation has pushed the price upwards during the war.
Coincidentally, the war came at a time when the price of copper was already at a very high level. Around Christmas, we saw that the price of copper skyrocketed, even though inventories were historically high and the market was stable.
The unusual combination of high supply and high price is due to the fact that the US (COMEX) has hoarded copper in recent years to prepare for Donald Trump's copper tariffs. The graph below shows the significant increase in global copper inventories driven by COMEX.
Trump is expected to announce how and when the copper tariff will be imposed by the end of June. With the current high price level, the copper market should be able to absorb the announcement without further price increases - but the markets have been known to move against all logic.
Stainless steel
With the announcement of the new safeguard quota and six months into CBAM, the market seems more optimistic than last year. We are seeing good activity and positive signs for the future.
This comes after a 2025 with low demand and plants struggling to earn back their costs. Stabilisation is needed, and 2026 seems to strike a better balance between supply and demand. We expect to see further stability and continued rising prices in Q3 and Q4.
Sheets/plates
We finally have clarification on the new safeguard quota, which will come into force on 1 July. As expected, the import quota will be almost halved and with a 50% tariff on imports beyond the quota. The Commission has the option to extend the quota to tubes and other steel products at a later date.
On the acid-resistant grades (4404/316L), we are facing increasing alloy surcharges as molybdenum has been rising for some time.
Lead times are still longer than usual for some products, but the market has generally improved.
Nickel
The nickel price has risen, partly because Indonesia is trying to centralise control of the country's large nickel production under a state authority. Even if that happens, there are no signs of a nickel shortage in the foreseeable future. It seems that the current price increases on nickel are mainly driven by speculation.
