The markets have barely moved in 2024. Copper, aluminium and stainless steel prices are very stable, and not much is happening in the major economies.

But things are expected to move slightly upwards in 2024.

Disclaimer

Macroeconomic developments

The wars in Gaza and Yemen and the unrest in the Red Sea are still not having a visible impact on metal prices. The major markets are sluggish and both China and Europe are struggling to keep economic growth going.

China

China has a big influence on commodity prices, which is one of the reasons the markets have been very quiet in the weeks leading up to and during the Chinese New Year. Now the festivities are over, and the markets are beginning to stir.

In general, China is struggling with a falling stock market, low growth and low to no inflation. As a result, news from China has generally led to falling metal prices in recent months. The Chinese central bank has attempted liquidity injections and cutting interest rates, but so far the effect on the metal markets has been limited.

Europe

Europe is doing better than China, but we are still struggling to get the economy going. 2023 ended with an overall GDP growth of 0.5%, which was better than expected, but still low.

On the other hand, inflation is somewhat under control and the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates 5 times in 2024 with 0.25% each time.

USA

Unlike China and Europe, the US economy is still surprisingly resilient. Inflation remains firmly at a high level, which is why we have not seen the expected interest rate cuts yet. Right now, the expectation is that interest rates will be decreased 4 times in 2024 with 0.25% each time, but that could change quickly.

Copper

Copper has been very stable since January. The price has moved in the range of USD 8,100-8,590/EUR 7,520-7,890.

The dollar is still strengthening against the euro, and this trend looks set to continue throughout the year.

Aluminium

Aluminium has been decidedly stagnant this past month. The price has only moved between USD 2,160-2,290/EUR 1,975-2,100.

The biggest unrest came on 23 January, new sanctions against Russia were rumoured. Approximately 85% of Russian metal exports are untouched by sanctions, but according to the rumours, this sanctions package would include aluminium. As a result, the price increased by 2%.

Stainless Steel

As expected, we are seeing small price increases now. But they are not coming from the mills as expected. So everyone is still waiting for the mills to raise prices to create a healthy balance in the market.

The situation in the Red Sea does not affect Alumeco's stainless steel products.

Sheets and plates

As expected, prices are starting to creep upwards on sheets and plates. This is mainly driven by strikes across Europe, which are pushing up prices.

Bars

We are seeing stable prices after a long period of falling alloy surcharges. There will be a small drop in March, but after that, alloy surcharges should stabilise.

All in all, bars seem to have found a balance after the COVID pandemic and the accident at the Ugitech plant two years ago.