Metallprisnyheter Forecast 2026
Copper, aluminium and stainless steel all peaked at the end of 2025 – and copper reached a record high. We know some of the factors that might affect prices in 2026, but the markets are also unpredictable and sometimes irrational at the moment. This is our look into 2026.
Macroeconomic factors
For once, neither Russia nor China are the centres of geopolitical attention. At the time of writing, there are geopolitical uncertainties surrounding Ukraine, Venezuela, Iran and Greenland.
The war in Ukraine has long been at somewhat of a standstill, and the other conflicts are too new to predict. Whether they will lead to more geopolitical unrest remains to be seen. The EU is considering trade policy measures against Trump's Greenland threats, but nothing is certain yet.
There is really only one thing we can say for certain: If any of the conflicts escalate further, we can expect higher commodity prices.
Copper
US tariffs
One of the main reasons for the rising copper prices is that US companies are filling up their stocks to soften the blow of further tariffs. Trump announced tariffs on certain processed copper products in 2025, but the markets fear the tariffs will be expanded to unprocessed copper in 2026 or 2027.
The copper price has probably peaked for now ($13,300/t - EUR 11,400 €/t), but we do not expect the price to go down until the market calms down and the US stops hoarding copper.
We can see that Trump has a very large influence on the copper price. News from the White House can cause large fluctuations, but the market also knows that no announcement is guaranteed to last for very long.
Mine breakdowns
We saw several breakdowns in various copper mines throughout 2025. The worst impact on the copper price came when the world's second largest copper mine, the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, suffered a landslide in September. The mine is currently running at about 60% of its production capacity, and it is not expected to reach 100% until the end of 2027.
The market will keep a close eye on the Grasberg mine in 2026, and positive or negative announcements could cause the price to fall or rise.
However, as we wrote in December, global copper stocks are at an unusually high level. So it is fear and hoarding more than actual shortages that control the copper price at the moment.
The Chinese real estate market is usually an important indicator for the copper price, but right now, we expect tariffs and mine breakdowns to play a much larger role.
Aluminium
The aluminium price did have some ups and downs in 2025, but that was mainly spillover from the copper price. The two prices tend to follow each other up and down, and some of the financial speculation in copper rubbed off on aluminium.
Right now, the main price factor is that Chinese aluminium plants are about to reach their production cap. The cap is political – to limit pollution etc. – and is not necessarily set in stone.
Regardless, other countries have extra production capacity and available raw materials, so the aluminium market should be able to adapt to demand in the foreseeable future. We expect the main price fluctuations in 2026 to be a result of the tight link between aluminium and copper prices.
Stainless steel
On stainless steel, the outlook for 2026 is a little more tangible:
The CBAM framework has just entered into force, and there will be a reform of the EU safeguard quota system by 1 July.
Both changes will increase European production of stainless steel in the face of reduced imports from Asia. Whether these changes are positive or negative is a matter of perspective.
We expect stainless steel prices to become more stable and predictable as a result of this change. The price gap between those who buy from Asia and those who have purchased local material will be smaller.
We are already seeing a major movement towards the European plants for material to be delivered in Q3.
Sheets/plates
We expect prices to increase in 2026. Whereas 2025 was a sluggish year with low activity, where the plants could barely break even, the move towards Europe will result in more activity and also higher prices.
We do not expect a shortage of sheets, plates and coils. Europa has the production capacity to meet demand – but there may be a temporary bottleneck until the market regains balance.
Bars
In the first half of 2026, we expect bars to remain relatively stable. But when the new safeguard quota comes into force on 1 July, things will be very different. Europe does not have the same capacity for bars as for plates, so we expect a tighter market and rising prices when the mills and wholesalers move their purchases from Asia to Europe.
Nickel
Nickel has risen significantly since the start of the new year. This is especially interesting because the price was stuck around $15,000/t for much of 2025. The main reason for the price increase is that Indonesia has limited its nickel production to push the price upwards.
The demand for nickel is steadily increasing, but supply has just grown even faster. We expect 2026 to be a balancing act where Indonesia will continue to artificially adjust the supply to maintain a certain price level.
So far, the price has not found a stable level, but we can expect higher alloy surcharges in 2026 – and some major price fluctuations.
