Metallprisnyheter Februari
The financial markets are calm, but stainless steel is facing bottleneckss in Europe. Copper and aluminium remain high, but stable.
Macroeconomic developments
Donald Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as new chairman of the US Federal Reserve. The reaction from the financial markets has been neutral – he was not the most controversial candidate.
In Japan, the new Prime Minister Takaichi has secured a majority in parliament, which has restored optimism in the Japanese economy.
In China, the Lunar New Year (Spring festival) has begun, and the financial markets are closed until 24 February. This means that we do not expect any significant price fluctuations in the next two weeks.
Copper
The copper price has started off 2026 the same way it ended 2025: on the rise. For now, it looks like the price peaked on January 29 when it briefly climbed above $14,500 during the day.
We have seen a lot of activity in the copper market in recent weeks, but that was likely just an effort to secure trades before the Chinese holidays. Everything is back to normal now.
Aluminium
As usual, the price of aluminium is following the price of copper and rises at roughly the same rate. But Trump also has power over the price: On Friday, aluminium dropped below $3,000 for the first time in 2026 when Trump teased a possible softening of his aluminium tariffs. When the US Treasury Secretary later that same day clarified that it would affect a very limited number of products, the price went up again.
Stainless steel
For stainless steel we are also seeing that politics and market forces are driving the price right now – not the raw materials.
CBAM has really made its mark on the market, and expectations for the new safeguard quota are also starting to show: Prices are rising across the board.
Sheets/plates
As we expected, CBAM has caused a temporary bottleneck, because the EU carbon tax has shifted large quantities from Asia to Europe.
Since December, prices have risen 5-7%, and this is not going to stop anytime soon.
However, Europe does have the capacity to produce the large quantities within the Union, and we expect the market to find a new normal during 2026.
But until we reach that point, some of the big mills are struggling to keep up. Their biggest concern is to be able to deliver the right amount of material at all – the price comes second and will be determined later.
We may see a shortage from March or April if the mills fail to catch up with the intense demand. But at Alumeco, we have a stable supply of stainless steel to our warehouses, and we expect to be able to maintain the same service level as always.
Bars
We are starting to see some unrest in the market in anticipation of the new safeguard quota on 1 July. We do not know what the quota will look like, but there is no doubt it will limit imports from Asia.
European plants are already feeling this with more orders coming in, and the price is slowly starting to rise.
Unfortunately, unlike with flat rolled products, Europe does not seem able to produce enough stainless bars to avoid imports from Asia entirely. We expect a major bottleneck later this year when the new quota really takes effect. How the EU will solve that issue – perhaps with special free trade agreements – remains to be seen.
The alloy surcharge is increasing by 1.8% on 304 (4301/4307) and 4.3% on 316/acid-resistant (4404) in March.
