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Metallprisnyheter vecka 48

 

News that have affected the metal prices

Todays commodity prices:

3 months LME USD 2.630/ EUR 2.330

Cash CLME USD 9.615 / EUR 8.520

China started up some of their coal plants again, which led to starting up production in some of the aluminium smelters. This caused aluminium prices to fall to the current level, where they have remained quite stable. At a high the aluminium price has been at USD 2.700 per ton and USD 2.600 at a low.

For copper the situation has been much the same. Since mid-November copper has been in the range USD 9.400 – USD 9.900. Copper has been more volatile than aluminium, but it has stayed in this range.

The commodity market is in a waiting position, waiting to see how several factors will unfold. First, the commodity market is waiting to see how the new string of Covid-19, Omicron, will affect the world. The first talk of the new string came on Friday November 26th, which led to a large sell off in the financial markets. But unlike earlier, the market rose a bit on Monday November 29th, and now the financial markets are in a waiting position to see the effect of this new string: Will the economies close down again or will we be able to continue the activity at the current level.

A secondary, but very important factor is the focus on inflation and interest rates. Generally the economies in Europe and the US are doing well. In Europe and the US inflation has started to rise. The inflation in the US has risen so much that FED have started to talk about increasing the interest rate and reducing the tapering program. If FED starts to increase the interest rates it is expected to lead to falling commodity prices.

Another main factor is the increasing electricity prices. The increasing electricity prices is one of the main reasons for the increasing inflation. The start of coal production in China has led to falling electricity prices, inflation and aluminium prices. It is expected that China will keep the coal production running.

For now the financial market has moved their focus away from the Chinese real estate sector.

In the coming years, increasing aluminium production in India might influence the aluminium price. The rising aluminium prices has led to increasing investments in Indian aluminium production. India is producing approx. 4 mio. ton aluminium each year. This production is expected to rise to approx. 5 mio. by mid-2020s.

 

Factors that make the price higher

News regarding the coronavirus.

Price increase.

Tax on aluminum and copper.

Economic data out of China, USA and Europe.

 

Factors that make the price lower

News regarding the coronavirus.

Inflation

Low economic growth from China, USA and Europe.

 

Prices from December 3rd, 2021.

DISCLAIMER